Ofqual algorithm skews student grade predictions

An algorithm developed by a UK government agency to predict student exam grades during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in inaccurate and unfair results, and exacerbated socio-economic inequality.

In 2020, qualifications, exams, and tests regulator Ofqual devised a grades standardisation algorithm to address grade inflation and moderate teacher-predicted grades for A-level and GCSE qualifications in England. 

However, the algorithm faced significant criticism for a flawed design process, leading to inaccurate results; and inadequate accountability. It also resulted in multiple negative impacts, including: 

• Downgraded results. Nearly 40 percent of students received exam scores that were lower than their teachers’ predictions, jeopardising their chances of securing university spots.