Virginia Non-violent Risk Assessment

Virginia Non-violent Risk Assessment (NVRA) is a method for diverting 25 percent of non-violent offenders into sanction programmes other than jail and prison, such as rehabilitation outpatient drug or mental health programmes. The risk assessment aims to identify the lowest risk offenders.

Developed by the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission (VCSC), the system was introduced in 2002, partly in order to avert a 'fiscal collapse' of the state prison system, partly to 'expand alternative punishment/treatment options for some non-violent felons.'

Transparency and accountability 🙈

The Virginia Nonviolent Risk Assessment (NVRA) is seen to suffer from several transparency and accountability limitations:

• Algorithmic opacity. The exact workings of the algorithm are not fully transparent, making it difficult for defendants, lawyers, and even judges to understand how risk scores are calculated.

• Complaints and appeals. The NVRA provides no clear process for challenging or appealing a risk score, which can significantly impact sentencing decisions.

• Outcome accountability. It is unclear who bears responsibility when the tool's predictions prove inaccurate or lead to unjust outcomes.

Risks and harms 🛑

Virginia Non-violent Risk Assessment has been criticised as unfair and discriminatory.

Research, advocacy 🧮

• Brookings Institution (2020). Understanding Risk Assessment Instruments in Criminal Justice

• Stevenson M., T., Doleac J. (2019). Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans

• Picard-Fritsche S., Rempel M., Tallon J. A., Adler J., Reyes A. (2017). Demistifying Risk Assessment - Key principles and Controversies (pdf)

• Kleiman M., Ostrom B. J., Chessman II F. (2016). Using Risk Assessment to Inform Sentencing Decisions for Nonviolent Offenders in Virginia

• Ostrom B. J., Kauder N., B. (2013). The Evolution of Offender Risk Assessment in Virginia

Investigations, assessments, audits 👁️

• Virginia Criminal Justice Reform Project (2018). Non Violent Risk Assessment in Virginia Sentencing (pdf)

• Ostrom B. J., Kleiman M., Chessman II F., Hansen R. M., Kauder N., B. (2002). Offender Risk Assessment in Virginia: A Three-Stage Evaluation

News, commentary, analysis 🗞️

• https://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/02/magazine/sentencing-by-the-numbers.html

• https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/dudgcmk3/release/5

• https://wisconsinwatch.org/2019/02/q-a-risk-assessments-explained/