UK government under fire for opaque "Orwellian" murder prediction tool
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Occurred: April 2025
Page published: April 2025
The UK government is under fire for developing a "murder prediction" tool that uses personal data and algorithms to identify individuals deemed most likely to commit serious violent crimes, sparking widespread concerns over privacy, bias, and civil liberties.
What happened
What happened
The UK Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has been analysing data from individuals with criminal convictions, including sensitive information like self-harm incidents, addiction struggles, and disability status, in order to develop a "murder prediction" system capable of identifying people most likely to commit murder.
However, civil rights group Statewatch revealed through FOI requests that the system - initially called the "homicide prediction project" and since renamed "sharing data to improve risk assessment" - could also use data from crime victims and those never convicted of offences.
The discovery is seen to raise questions about potential loss of privacy, increased surveillance, racial bias and the erosion of civil liberties, particularly amongst marginalised communities.
Why it happened
Why it happened
The MoJ claims the project seeks to improve existing risk assessment tools, notably OASys, which are already used to predict the possibility of criminals reoffending when approaching prison release.
OASys has previously demonstrated racial bias in predicting reoffending.
What it means
What it means
Critics are concerned that the data used to develop the MoJ's new murder prediction tool includes data on people who are innocent of any crime, potentially resulting in the criminalisation of innocent people.
Fears have also been expressed that profiling based on mental health and victim status creates ethical concerns about presumption of guilt, and that the system will result in loss of privacy and racial and other forms of discrimination.
In addition, questions have been asked about the MoJ's approach to transparency. MoJ officials insist its murder prediction project is only for research; however, Statewatch says the documents it received clearly refer to the "future operationalization" of the system.
Predictive analytics
Predictive analytics, or predictive AI, encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.
Source: Wikipedia🔗
System 🤖
System 🤖
Sharing Data to Improve Risk Assessment
Developer: Ministry of Justice
Country: UK
Sector: Govt - justice
Purpose: Predict murder
Technology: Machine learning
Issue: Accuracy/reliability; Bias/discrimination; Human/civil rights; Privacy; Transparency
Research, advocacy 🧮
Research, advocacy 🧮
Freedom of information requests 🔦
Freedom of information requests 🔦
AIAAIC Repository ID: AIAAIC1949
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